Iraq’s Shiites Test Iran
شيعة العراق يختبرون إيران
Is Tehran’s Leverage Slipping?
Not only is the leadership in the Iraqi PMF closely aligned with its counterparts in the Iranian IRGC, the disbandment of the PMF model in Iraq, as Sadr is urging, would represent a clear setback for the IRGC’s preferred modus operandi in expanding its influence in the region, meaning through the PMF rather than through a central government, be it in Baghdad or Damascus. If Iraq were to disband the PMF, it could undercut the IRGC’s image of invincibility, which it peddles at home to garner support from the Iranian people.
Sadr surely knows that his attack on the PMF is an explicit challenge to the IRGC that will not be left unanswered. The reasons behind his decision to go down this path will no doubt remain a cause for speculation, given his labyrinthine relationship with the Iranian state. One thing seems sure, though: Tehran is taken aback by Sadr’s latest maneuver.
Of course, the process of decoupling Tehran from Shiite Iraqi groups will be difficult given the ties between the two, which stretch back decades. Should any unraveling begin, it will take a long time before it produces significant consequences. Still, the worry for Tehran remains: if Sadr can
make an about-face, so can other Shiite groups in Baghdad.
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Foreign Affairs
Sadr surely knows that his attack on the PMF is an explicit challenge to the IRGC that will not be left unanswered. The reasons behind his decision to go down this path will no doubt remain a cause for speculation, given his labyrinthine relationship with the Iranian state. One thing seems sure, though: Tehran is taken aback by Sadr’s latest maneuver.
Of course, the process of decoupling Tehran from Shiite Iraqi groups will be difficult given the ties between the two, which stretch back decades. Should any unraveling begin, it will take a long time before it produces significant consequences. Still, the worry for Tehran remains: if Sadr can
make an about-face, so can other Shiite groups in Baghdad.
________________________________________________
Foreign Affairs
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